11/21/2008 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vince Carter poured in a season-high 39 points, including the desperation three-pointer at the end of regulation to send the game into overtime and the game-winning alley-oop dunk as time expired in the extra frame against his former team, to lead the Nets in a wild 129-127 win over the Raptors.
Devin Harris scored 30 points and had five helpers for the Nets, who have won three of four. Jarvis Hayes and Brook Lopez totaled 14 points apiece in the win.
Chris Bosh had 42 points and Jose Calderon had season-highs of 26 points and 15 assists for the Raptors, who have dropped four of their last six games. Andrea Bargnani had a career-high of 29 points and a season-high with 10 boards. Jermaine O'Neal had seven points and seven boards before leaving in the first minute of the fourth quarter with a sprained left knee.
Bargnani hit a three from the top of the arc for a 119-116 Raptors lead midway through the extra frame.
Hayes hit a three from the right wing to tie the game at 121. Toronto then turned the ball over and Harris hit a jumper with 45.5 ticks left to make it 123-121.
Bargnani's three-ball didn't fall and Harris grabbed the rebound and was fouled with 19.1 seconds left. He hit 1-of-2 to keep it a one-possession game, 124-121.
Again Bargnani took a three and again it didn't fall, giving New Jersey the ball. With 13.2 seconds remaining Keyon Dooling was fouled and hit 1-of-2 to make it a four-point game.
Bosh nailed a desperation three with five seconds left, but Carter was fouled and hit both shots to make it 127-124.
Anthony Parker drained a three from the left wing with 2.1 to tie it.
With the game seemingly headed for another overtime, Carter had other ideas. Bobby Simmons inbounded the ball with a high lob towards the basket and Carter grabbed it and slammed home a beautiful reverse dunk that sealed the win for the visitors as time expired.
"I don't even know what to say now," Bosh said. "I'm so upset about the game."
The Raptors jumped out to a 33-22 lead after the first quarter. The 33 first- quarter points was a season-high for Toronto. Toronto kept pressing and opened a 61-47 lead at the half. The teams traded baskets and Toronto led 85-76 heading into the final 12 minutes.
Down by eight, Ryan Anderson's layup sparked seven unanswered New Jersey points. Harris followed with a pair of free throws and a three-point play to make it 86-85 with 9:07 showing on the clock.
Harris' layup tied it at 93 with 6:20 left in regulation.
Bosh drove in for a layup and was fouled by Anderson, he then completed the three-point play for a 96-93 Toronto lead with about 4 1/2 minutes remaining.
Calderon was fouled by Harris after the Raptors stopped the Nets, and he hit both shots for a five-point lead.
Kris Humphries poured in a layup after Carter missed a shot for the Nets, and it was 100-93 in favor of the home team. The visitors eventually pulled within four points on a jumper from Lopez, but Calderon drained a three to make it 104-97 with 1:53 left.
A Carter three from the left wing made it 108-104 with 24.2 ticks showing, and Bargnani was called for a five-second violation to give the possession away. On the ensuing New Jersey possession, Carter drove in a dropped in a finger roll to make it a two-point game.
Calderon was then fouled with 14.7 seconds showing, he hit both shots to again make it a four-point affair. But Carter netted a layup to make it a two-point differential. Parker was fouled, but missed 1-of-2 and the Nets had a chance down three with 3.2 seconds left.
Following a timeout, Carter took the inbounds pass from Simmons a few feet behind the top of the arc and drained a wild three in Parker's face to square the contest at 111 with 0.5 seconds showing. The teams headed for overtime as Toronto couldn't score on the final play.
"I wanted to get my feet set not shoot it any different than any other shot and it went down," said Carter. "About midway I said this is going in. I was at about half court by that time. I was happy to get into overtime, it was a lot of momentum for us."
Game Notes
Carter also added nine boards and six assists...It was a season-high in points scored for both teams...Bargnani, Calderon and Bosh accounted for 42 of the Raptors' 61 first-half points...Toronto owns a 2-3 record as the host this season...The Nets are 3-2 away from the Meadowlands this season...Toronto went 3-1 against the Nets last season and had won five of the past seven matchups...New Jersey had lost four straight at the Air Canada Centre.
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
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