11/18/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- Things haven't quite gone as planned for the New Orleans Saints for much of the 2008 season, with injuries, inconsistency and even a little in-fighting all contributing to the unwanted 4-5 record the team brought into this past Sunday's meeting with Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium. For at least one day, though, the club many insiders had tabbed as one to beat in the NFC South heading into this campaign lived up to its preseason billing.
Granted that the one-win Chiefs weren't the most challenging of tests, but Sunday's 30-20 road victory did provide a jolt of encouragement for a second- half resurgence for New Orleans. The Saints were efficient on offense, stingy on defense at crucial points of the game, and for the most part steered clear of the self-inflicted breakdowns which too often have plagued them over the last 2 1/2 months.
New Orleans also finally broke into the win column on the road for the first time this season. Discounting a 37-32 shootout triumph over San Diego in a neutral-site affair in London last month, the Saints had lost all four of their matchups in enemy venues prior to the Kansas City game.
The Saints will attempt to record another first when they host defending NFC North champion Green Bay this Monday, the team's first game at the Superdome since October 12. New Orleans has yet to post back-to-back wins this year and hasn't done so since Weeks 14 and 15 of the 2007 season.
The game is also expected to mark the long-awaited comeback of Reggie Bush to the Saints' lineup. The versatile running back and electrifying return man was held out of the Kansas City game to further rest his surgically-repaired left knee, but is expected to be ready to go when the Packers visit the Crescent City.
Bush hasn't played since tearing the meniscus in his knee during a loss at division-rival Carolina on October 19. The Heisman Trophy winner had scored eight touchdowns, including three on punt returns, in seven games prior to getting hurt.
Pierre Thomas did a pretty good Bush imitation against the Chiefs. The second- year back posted season-bests of 88 rushing yards and 16 carries along with a touchdown on the afternoon, while netting an additional 56 yards on four receptions.
QUICK HITS: Wide receiver Lance Moore recorded career-highs of eight catches and 102 receiving yards, 47 of which came on a touchdown connection with quarterback Drew Brees in the third quarter, in Sunday's win...Reserve defensive end Jeff Charleston had two of New Orleans' four sacks against the Chiefs...Running back Deuce McAllister and defensive end Will Smith will have their appeals of a potential four-game suspension for violating the NFL's steroid policy heard by league commissioner Roger Goodell on Tuesday. The pair tested positive for a banned diuretic in late October...Tight end Mark Campbell left the game with a sprained MCL in his left knee, an injury that could jeopardize the blocking specialist's season...The Saints went 3-1 against AFC West teams this year, but are just 2-4 against the NFC so far in 2008.
NEXT UP: New Orleans plays its first home game in six weeks when the Packers invade the Superdome for a Monday night clash. Like the Saints, Green Bay has split its first 10 games of the season, but that is currently good for a three-way tie for first place in the suspect NFC North. The Packers will be visiting New Orleans for the first time since 2002.
ATLANTA: The Falcons' season-long run of success at the Georgia Dome came to an end over the weekend, as the Denver Broncos dealt Atlanta its first loss at the Georgia Dome in 2008 with Sunday's 24-20 decision.
The Falcons also had their bid for a third consecutive victory foiled for the second time this season, but the upstart team came very close in a tightly- contested game that featured four lead changes.
After Denver regained a four-point advantage with a 10-play, 83-yard touchdown drive that culminated with Jay Cutler's short scoring pass to tight end Daniel Graham with 5:35 left to play, rookie quarterback Matt Ryan marched the Falcons across midfield in the game's final minutes. Faced with a 3rd- and-18 from the Broncos 45-yard-line, Ryan heaved a deep strike down the right sideline for his favorite target, wide receiver Roddy White.
The speedy wideout got his hands on the would-be touchdown pass, but was unable to haul in what would have been a tough catch. Ryan then misfired on the ensuing play, giving Denver the ball on downs with under a minute to go.
Although White finished with 102 yards on five grabs, the fifth time the former first-round pick has eclipsed the century mark this year, he spent most of his time after the game lamenting the one reception he couldn't quite come up with.
"I have to go out there and make those plays," he said. "I feel responsible for the loss today. I had an opportunity and I didn't take advantage of it."
Ryan had an imperfect afternoon as well, in comparison to his previous flawless performances at the Georgia Dome to begin his promising career. The heady young signal-caller did put up 250 yards on 20-of-33 passing against the Broncos, but was also intercepted for the first time in Atlanta's five home games this season. The pick, which was snared by veteran Dre' Bly late in the third quarter, led to a Denver field goal.
Entering Sunday's clash, Ryan had an NFL-best 125.2 passer rating at home and had thrown for five touchdowns and no interceptions over the Falcons' four prior tests as the host. Atlanta had won each of those games.
The Falcons, who still remain in the thick of the NFC playoff picture with a 6-4 record, have not won three in a row since October 16-November 6, 2005.
QUICK HITS: White now has eight straight games with at least five receptions... Running back Michael Turner scored two touchdowns in Sunday's loss, including a 25-yard scoring burst early in the fourth quarter that gave the Falcons a short-lived 20-17 lead...Falcons cornerback Domonique Foxworth spent his first three seasons with the Broncos before being traded to Atlanta in early September. He compiled five solo tackles against his former club... Defensive tackle Grady Jackson, who tested positive for the same illegal substance as the Saints' McAllister and Smith, will have the appeal of his case heard later this week...Ryan has just two touchdown passes and five interceptions in Atlanta's four losses.
NEXT UP: The Falcons aim for a quick rebound in this Sunday's pivotal showdown with NFC South leader Carolina at the Georgia Dome. Atlanta, which presently trails the Panthers by two games in the division standings, will also be seeking to avenge a 24-9 defeat to the Cats in Charlotte back in Week 4. The Falcons mustered just 268 total yards in that game, with Turner held to 56 yards on 18 rush attempts.
CAROLINA: The Panthers used their recently-dominating running game to run their winning streak to four consecutive games in Week 11, as the division front-runners racked up a franchise-record 264 rushing yards that paved the way for a harder-than-expected 31-22 ousting of the hapless Detroit Lions at Bank of America Stadium.
Carolina's ground onslaught enabled the surging squad to overcome an early 10-0 deficit, as well as withstand a belated comeback attempt from the pesky Lions. The team's stellar running back duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart combined for 250 yards and three touchdowns, marking the first time in Panthers history that two players have gained triple-digits in the same game.
Stewart amassed a career-best 130 yards and a score on only 15 carries, while Williams added 120 yards and a pair of touchdowns on his 14 attempts. The Panthers averaged a whopping 8.3 yards per rush against a woeful Detroit defense, which also stands as a new club record.
Numbers like that have been nothing new for Williams as of late. The third- year pro ran for 108 and 140 yards in Carolina's two wins prior to Sunday's tilt, and he's averaged 7.4 yards per carry over that sensational stretch.
Williams' string of prolific performances and Stewart's monster day against the Lions have helped the Panthers vault to sixth in the NFL in rushing offense (133.7 ypg), as has the strong play from an offensive line that's finally jelled after enduring a rash of early-season injuries.
It's always fun when the line can come up off the ball and block," left guard Travelle Wharton said on Sunday. "Our backs had great vision and they were just hitting the holes and they were running really hard. For us it's just being patient. Let those guys do their thing. As long as we block the right people up front and let those guys make a safety miss, they are hard to bring down one-on-one."
Carolina, whose 8-2 season record matches the best-ever mark in team annals after 10 games, had produced 242 rushing yards in a 15-0 victory over St. Louis on November 19, 2006.
QUICK HITS: The Panthers also started off 8-2 en route to their lone Super Bowl appearance in 2003...Carolina's previous record for yards per carry was 8.16, established at Washington on October 17, 1999...Defensive end Julius Peppers backed up a three-sack effort in an November 9 win at Oakland with two more takedowns in Sunday's triumph...Rookie free safety Charles Godfrey had a hand in two of the Panther defense's four takeaways against the Lions, recovering a fumble in the second quarter and garnering his first career interception in the fourth...Reserve offensive lineman Jeremy Bridges was inactive for the game as a precautionary measure due to an irregular heartbeat.
NEXT UP: Carolina will be vying for a fourth straight win at the Georgia Dome during this Sunday's clash with the Falcons. The Panthers' 24-9 victory over Atlanta in September continued their recent dominance in the series, with Carolina having notched wins in five of its last seven overall encounters with the Falcons.
TAMPA BAY: The Buccaneers strengthened their case for inclusion in the NFC's postseason parade come January, but the team's already-muddled running back situation became even more murkier following this past Sunday's 19-13 win over visiting Minnesota.
Leading rusher Earnest Graham twisted his right ankle on his first and only carry of the contest, and head coach Jon Gruden termed the injury to be potentially season-ending during his Monday press conference.
Graham, a self-made former undrafted free agent who spent most of his first three professional seasons on special teams, has played a key role on a Tampa team that improved to 7-3 with Sunday's decision, and was instrumental to the Bucs' surprising run to the NFC South title a year ago. The 28-year-old rushed for 898 yards and 10 touchdowns upon supplanting injured starter Carnell "Cadillac" Williams last season, and has recorded team-bests of 563 yards on the ground and four rushing scores so far in 2008.
"I'm just very disappointed for our guy Earnest," said a somber Gruden on Monday. "He means a lot to us. He's done so much for us here in the last couple years. He's a key reason why we are where we are."
Twelfth-year veteran Warrick Dunn will likely take over as Tampa Bay's primary ball-carrier in the wake of Graham's injury, and Gruden remains hopeful that the brittle Williams will be able to ease the burden on the 33-year-old back. The Bucs activated the 2005 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year from the Physically Unable to Perform list last week, but Williams was inactive for the Minnesota game and has not played since suffering a career-threatening patellar tendon tear in his right knee on September 30, 2007.
Fullback B.J. Askew, who's finally back from a torn hamstring that's limited him to just four games so far this year, may also be part of the mix. The valued lead blocker had a one-yard touchdown run in Sunday's test and may be used more in short-yardage situations going forward.
Dunn managed just 53 yards on 20 attempts against Minnesota' sturdy run defense on Sunday, but did contribute 65 yards on four catches to the winning effort.
QUICK HITS: Quarterback Jeff Garcia hit on 23-of-30 passes for 255 yards and no interceptions versus the Vikings, the fifth time in the gritty veteran's last six games he's completed over 70 percent of his throws...Tight end Jerramy Stevens posted season-bests of six catches and 84 receiving yards in place of injured starter Alex Smith, who missed Sunday's matchup with an ankle sprain...Rookie linebacker Geno Hayes injured his knee in the fourth quarter during the win and may miss the remainder of the season...Nine-time Pro Bowl safety John Lynch, who spent 11 of his 15 professional seasons with Tampa Bay, officially retired as a Buc on Monday after signing a one-day contract.
NEXT UP: The Buccaneers head to the Motor City this Sunday for a battle with the still-winless Detroit Lions. Tampa Bay has won six of its last eight meetings with its former co-tenant in the now-defunct NFC Central, but the Lions handed Gruden's charges a 23-16 setback at Ford Field during Week 7 of last season.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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